25 March 2005

Earthquakes and Global Warming

Editor,

In the news article "Do You Live in an Earthquake Hazard Region?" (TCS, 11 March 2005) Forrest Mims suggests that living in an earthquake prone area would be a reason to be interested in building a seismograph. Actually, even living in a very active region would be boring waiting for something local to happen. It would be best to build a seismograph capable of distant events wherever you live. Every day such an instrument will provide something interesting to look at. This web page http://www.seismicnet.com/index.html is probably the best place to start for anyone interesting in getting into amateur seismology.

About global warming (see Editorial, 11 March 2005), It seems like you don't see much discussion of the deeper issues surrounding the topic. For example, you hear a lot of discussion on about whether warming is primarily manmade or due to natural variation. There seems to be an assumption here that if it is manmade we should try and prevent it. Conversely if it were natural we should not try to prevent it. I am not sure about this line of reasoning. It could be that if it is man made there is a moral obligation to stop doing what it is that causes warming. Or, if it is natural, we could not possibly do anything to stop the warming. Both of these ideas are subject to question in my mind. Assuming that the warming is real and going to continue, we (the world community) should really be discussing what is the most likely to succeed and least costly (in all respects) method of dealing with the situation. I see three options along with many variations. 1. Do nothing. 2. Try to stop the warming. 3. Plan to adapt to the changes.

One of the arguments I have heard recently is that a lot of the objections to the Kyoto accord are coming from economists rather than climate scientists. (The climate scientists are saying that the economists do not know anything about climate change, and their opinion is worthless.) The problem here is that the economists do know about how the proposed solution (cutting back on carbon dioxide emissions) will affect the global economy. If the economy is affected too much, all the effort will come to a stop. It seems like we need to listen to a variety of expertise before we decide on an approach to climate change.

Jim Hannon


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