16 July 2004

Patience can bring significant discoveries

Forrest M. Mims III

Patience led to this ongoing time series of measurements from the ground of the ozone layer that began in 1990 and continues today. NASA satellite observations are in green and the ground measurements are in blue. The missing green observations are when there was no NASA ozone satellite, which illustrates the importance of ground measurements. Image from www.forrestmims.org. Click image to enlarge.

Some of the most important discoveries in science occurred because of the investigator's patience.

Consider Gregor Mendel, the Augustinian friar and experimental scientist who began carefully organized experiments with pea plants in 1856. A decade later, Mendel published "Experiments in Plant Hybridization" in the proceedings of the local Society for Natural Sciences.

Mendel's paper went largely unnoticed for fifty years. When the larger world of science found his paper, Mendel became known as the father of modern genetics.

Some amateur scientists have had good results applying the example of Mendel and other patient scientists and inventors. Some very patient amateur horticulturists have developed new varieties of plants. Amateur astronomers are especially patient, and some have produced decades long observations of variable stars, sun spots, meteors, comets and so forth. Some amateur meteorologists have logged daily weather records for decades.

I have had firsthand experience with long term data collection. Back in 1989, I developed several atmospheric monitoring instruments for "The Amateur Scientist" in Scientific American. One of these instruments was published in Scientific American (How to Monitor Ultraviolet Radiation from the Sun, Scientific American 263, 2, 106-109, August 1990). Using these instruments was so interesting that I decided to use them for a year or so to measure the ozone layer, the atmosphere's optical thickness and the column amount of water vapor. Little did I know that that first year would become 15 years!

So far the data from those measurements fills a 12 megabyte spreadsheet. Several scientific papers have come from the data, and more will follow. A few of the original instruments are still in use every day the Sun is visible.

Want to make a discovery? Find something interesting to measure.

After a decade of observations, you will know as much as the experts about what you are studying. You might even know more.